

Interview with Auke Hoekstra
In the long term, electric driving is cheaper than driving on fossil fuels. EVs are simply getting better and cheaper, and local solar, wind, and batteries will shape our electricity grid.
Auke Hoekstra, researcher and consultant on electric mobility at the Eindhoven University of Technology (TU/e), speaks clearly and sees the Arnhem Electricity Week as a platform to inform policymakers and young professionals about these radical changes. Auke is well-known for his activities on Twitter and in the media, where he exposes false claims about electric cars.
You often appear as an expert on electric transport for the Dutch parliament, ministries, provinces, and municipalities. You were also a strategic advisor on energy transition at the energy network company Alliander and have written several books on the topic. Where does your interest in the energy transition come from?
“I’ve always been a world-improver. Coming up with innovative ways to contribute to a more sustainable, better world constantly occupies my mind. When I quit my job as a project manager at KPN seventeen years ago and took a sabbatical, I realized that solar, wind, batteries, and electric cars would become cheaper than their fossil counterparts. I thought: I need to tell the world about this, because otherwise it might take years before everyone sees it. That’s why I wrote the book Elektrisch Rijden (Electric Driving). My second book, Energieke Wegen (Energetic Roads), was about how these cars get their energy. Writing was mainly a way for me to get the entire energy transition straight in my head, but I was then labeled as an expert. Rijkswaterstaat had published my books, so people assumed that Hoekstra must know his stuff.”
Since 2008, you’ve been advocating for a fast and profitable transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy. But shouldn’t people stop driving cars altogether?
“I’m not an ambassador for cars or someone promoting as many electric cars as possible. I’m mostly against fuel-powered cars. The fastest way to get rid of them is to replace them with electric ones. Of course, investing in bike lanes, more greenery, and better, cheaper public transport is great for making cities more beautiful and livable. Some people might take the train more often if prices are halved. But let’s be realistic: most people aren’t ready to give up their cars just yet.”
What will work?
“You might not get people out of their beloved cars, but they are much less attached to the combustion engine. If you say: ‘Get an electric car, it costs about the same, is just as comfortable, is better for the environment, and you’ll pay much less for energy and maintenance,’ they’ll probably say: ‘OK, the environment is a nice bonus, but I’ll switch for all those other reasons.’ So my goal is not to have more cars, but fewer combustion cars.”
But they’ll have to become cheaper, right? Even used EVs are unaffordable for many people.
“That will change. In China, we’re already seeing that new electric cars are cheaper than combustion cars. We’re not there yet, and it will take some time before second-hand electric cars are as cheap as used combustion cars. Still, that price drop has already begun. You can now buy a five-year-old used Tesla Model 3 for €15,000, while it cost over €40,000 new.”
But in a recession, people will still go for a Twingo over a used Tesla.
“Yes, it will take a few more years before everyone can find an affordable electric deal. If you want something cheaper now, you’ll only find it if you’re OK with less range, and it helps if you can charge it with your own electricity. But eventually, electric driving will become much cheaper simply because an electric car uses energy that’s four times less expensive. And the maintenance costs, especially for second-hand cars, are also much lower than for fuel-powered ones.”
Your goal is to speed up the transition to electric mobility and low-carbon wind and solar energy with interactive simulations that show leaders, directors, and citizens how to implement the transition quickly and cost-effectively. Reaching all these different people sounds complicated.
“Not really. The methodology we developed is called interactive multi-level, agent-based digital twins. These can capture and interactively represent complex socio-technical systems. It sounds complicated, but it’s essentially just a copy of reality in the computer. On the screen, you see a map of a specific area. It shows all the buildings, power lines, solar panels, electric cars, wind turbines, charging stations, and substations, each with their own behavior. First, we simulate all the energy flows and usage in that area for an entire year. If you add more wind turbines, or more solar panels, and then simulate the same year again, you’ll see that there’s suddenly excess energy. This way, you can try everything out before making any purchases.”
Do you make different maps for each party involved in an area?
“We can adjust the display, but what’s more important is that everyone can adjust different variables, and everyone can see the outcomes that matter to them. Each group has different interests. If a logistics company wants to switch to electric trucks, they’ll see that diesel costs disappear, and expenses drop significantly. Grid operators looking at the same area will be less thrilled because the demand for electricity will increase, and they might not be able to supply it. Long story short: on the left side of the map, three different groups can indicate what they want to see, and on the right, they’ll each see a different output.”
Why bring all these different parties together in this way?
“We want people to communicate with each other, not past each other. If you want to make an area more sustainable, you can’t ignore the opinions, interests, and wishes of any of the stakeholders. For example, if a city wants to make its center car-free, local businesses will worry about their sales, and residents will wonder where the cars will park. With our models, all these groups can experiment with possible scenarios themselves, so they can come to solutions and compromises together. Sustainable development of areas boils down to two things: emotions — what makes us happy? — and costs. We display these calculations on a map at a glance.”
When will most of the Netherlands be driving electric? Is it even feasible?
“Yes, it’s feasible, and even inevitable. In 2017, I made a prediction: it will be 2035 before half the population drives electric cars. I still believe that. It will take a while before all fuel-powered cars are replaced, though. If you buy a car today, you’ll drive it for another ten to fifteen years.”
How do you see the scale-up of the e-mobility sector in relation to grid congestion?
“We need to charge smartly. This means that when you plug in your car, it won’t charge at full power immediately. During peak hours, it will charge slowly or not at all, and only after the peak passes will it start charging. This relieves the electricity grid, and you’ll charge cheaply because energy is more expensive during peak times. Maarten Steinbuch, professor of Systems & Control at TU/e, always says: ‘If used correctly, electric cars are not a problem but the solution for the energy grid.’ I fully agree with that. By adjusting the software on charging stations, you can ensure charging is cheaper when there’s an electricity surplus and more expensive when there’s a shortage. This way, excess electricity can be stored in the batteries of electric cars, making them a form of storage for the electricity grid.”
What else can we do?
“On average, our grid is only used to 20-30% capacity, with occasional peaks. Smartly controlled batteries that store and return energy can ensure that cars don’t increase those peaks. On top of that, more electric cars are becoming capable of feeding energy back into the grid. This is called bidirectional charging or vehicle-to-grid (V2G). Then the car really becomes a full-fledged battery on wheels and can actively reduce peaks.”
Is the government on board with this?
“People think a right-wing government is less green, but when businesses can’t expand due to grid limitations, that’s a problem for both the left and right. By working smartly with batteries, we can solve this and provide enough energy to industrial areas — something that appeals to everyone.”
Recently, Mario Draghi led research focusing on the energy transition and Europe’s role in it. Where do you see the biggest opportunities and threats for Europe as a global leader in sustainable energy?
“A modern electricity grid built from the bottom up: you optimize your own consumption with solar panels, batteries, an electric car, and a heat pump. Then you do it with your neighborhood, then your city, and finally your entire country. This way, we can optimally use batteries to complement solar and wind power, and we largely solve grid congestion. Recycling also offers opportunities. We should be able to reuse our own raw materials to make new batteries from Chinese batteries.”
Cobalt often comes from the Democratic Republic of Congo, where human rights are not always respected. What are your thoughts on this?
“About 10% of the world’s cobalt comes from so-called artisanal mines, where the poorest families in Congo dig it up with picks and shovels. It’s important not to shut down all these mines, as that would deprive the poorest people of their livelihood. Instead, I think we should improve the working conditions there. And if I may be a bit cynical: no one cared about this when cobalt was mainly used in gasoline and diesel production. Now it’s suddenly an issue, and it’s primarily EV manufacturers leading initiatives to improve working conditions.”
You’re part of the international program committee helping to organize the European New Power Summit. What are the key topics we should be discussing right now, in your opinion?
“I think we need to emphasize that the electricity grid is going to change radically — from centralized, top-down, fossil fuel-based, to decentralized, bottom-up, based on solar, wind, and batteries. The role of batteries and local energy trade is still underexposed. Batteries have become over a hundred times cheaper in the past twenty years. Now we can suddenly store solar and wind energy while easing the electricity grid. We need to manage those batteries well. That means people should be rewarded for using batteries in ways that keep energy flows local and reduce grid peaks. This requires a market mechanism where local parties can trade energy, and transparency about grid loads is provided. This is a big shift since the electricity grid has little monitoring and intelligence and is centrally controlled. But eventually, we’ll adapt. I’m convinced of that.”
Information on the speaker
